Some countries are
probably looking forward to the World Cup draw more than others. Ivory
Coast fans, whose team always seems to end up in the dreaded "group of
death" - like Argentina and the Netherlands in 2006, then Brazil and
Portugal in 2010 - may be preparing for the worst.
There is also a reason for all Europeans to be nervous, as I will explain later. But what about killing off the group of death? Could it be done?
Actually yes, it could.
Consider how the groups are formed. Already the teams have been placed in four pots of eight teams - though it has yet to be decided which one of nine European teams will end up in pot three. The groups will consist of one team from each pot.
All the seeded teams are in pot one. This ensures that they don't have to play each other until the later stages of the competition.
France was originally expected to be in pot three - a random choice will now be made
In the other two pots are teams from Asia, North and Central America (pot two), and those from Africa plus two unseeded teams from South America (pot three).
Now let's look at the deadliest group that could possibly be drawn from the pots.
To do this, we first have to rank the teams by strength. One way would be to use Fifa's world rankings, but as I explained last week
playing friendly internationals can cause a team to sink way down the
Fifa rankings, even when it wins. So we will use a modified Fifa ranking
that ignores friendlies.Using this ranking system, pot one, containing the top seeds, comes out the strongest, with an average ranking of 6.25, followed by the European pot (pot four) with an average in the mid-teens. It would have been 14.25 if France (ranked 15th), had found itself in pot three, as had been expected until Fifa made a U-turn this week. It will be slightly more or slightly less if one of the other European teams ends up there instead.
World Cup pots (our ranking in brackets) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|
Brazil (2) |
Japan (46) |
France (15) |
Netherlands (5) |
|
Spain (1) |
Australia (36) |
Chile (8) |
Italy (6) |
|
Germany (3) |
Iran (40) |
Ecuador (27) |
England (12) |
|
Argentina (4) |
S Korea (50) |
Nigeria (37) |
Portugal (13) |
|
Colombia (14) |
Costa Rica (42) |
Cameroon (34) |
Greece (17) |
|
Belgium (7) |
USA (11) |
Ivory Coast (19) |
Bosnia (18) |
|
Uruguay (10) |
Mexico (22 tied) |
Algeria (39) |
Croatia (22 tied) |
|
Switzerland (9) |
Honduras (44) |
Ghana (20) |
Russia (21) |
|
Avg rank 6.25 |
36.38 |
24.88 |
14.25 |
Continue reading the main story
If England were to play Spain and beat them they'd get more Fifa ranking points than the Ivory Coast would get for a similar victory. It's one reason why just three teams from outside Europe and South America are in the world's top 30 - the USA, the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
If all continents were treated equally, the Ivory Coast and the USA would be seeds for the World Cup.
Fifa say there's a reason for this. They judge each continent or region on how their teams have performed in the last three World Cups. If you got rid of this weighting, the US would go from the world's 13th team, to the world's 4th. Even American fans might admit this is a stretch, given that they recently drew with Scotland and lost to Austria.
Continental drift
Fifa value games between European and South American teams more highly than any others.If England were to play Spain and beat them they'd get more Fifa ranking points than the Ivory Coast would get for a similar victory. It's one reason why just three teams from outside Europe and South America are in the world's top 30 - the USA, the Ivory Coast and Ghana.
If all continents were treated equally, the Ivory Coast and the USA would be seeds for the World Cup.
Fifa say there's a reason for this. They judge each continent or region on how their teams have performed in the last three World Cups. If you got rid of this weighting, the US would go from the world's 13th team, to the world's 4th. Even American fans might admit this is a stretch, given that they recently drew with Scotland and lost to Austria.
For the sake of argument, we will assume in what follows that it is France in pot three.
If so, the strongest group that could be drawn, following
Fifa rules, is: Spain (ranked 1st), USA (11th), Chile (8th) and the
Netherlands (5th). This group contains four of the top 11 teams in the
world. You might describe it as the ultimate group of death.The weakest possible group would have champagne corks popping in Bogota: Colombia (14th), South Korea (50th), Algeria (39th) and Croatia (which ties with Mexico for 22nd place in our ranking). In this hypothetical group, the average ranking is 31.25.
In other words, the gap between the toughest and the weakest groups in terms of average world ranking is 25 places.
But there is a different way the pots could be organised, and that is simply to place teams in pots according to their world ranking (minus friendly games, of course).
Alternative World Cup pots |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|
Spain (1) |
Switzerland (9) |
Bosnia (18) |
Australia (36) |
|
Brazil (2) |
Uruguay (10) |
Ivory Coast (19) |
Nigeria (37) |
|
Germany (3) |
USA (11) |
Ghana (20) |
Algeria (39) |
|
Argentina (4) |
England (12) |
Russia (21) |
Iran (40) |
|
Netherlands (5) |
Portugal (13) |
Croatia (22 tied) |
Costa Rica (42) |
|
Italy (6) |
Colombia (14) |
Mexico (22 tied) |
Honduras (44) |
|
Belgium (7) |
France (15) |
Ecuador (27) |
Japan (46) |
|
Chile (8) |
Greece (17) |
Cameroon (34) |
S Korea (50) |
|
Avg rank 4.5 |
12.63 |
22.83 |
41.75 |
The weakest group is: Chile (8th), Greece (17th), Cameroon (34th) and South Korea (50th). Average ranking 27.25.
This time the difference between the toughest and weakest groups in terms of average world ranking is just 11 places.
The group of death is kicked right out of the stadium.
Would that be a good thing? Maybe not.
Everyone loves a group of death as long as their country isn't in it.....READ MORE
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